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Expert Opinion

12.07.2010

Credit-Rating: USD/UAH Exchange Rate to Remain, EUR to Rise – Analysts Say

The majority of financial experts does not expect wide fluctuations in USD/UAH exchange rate through end-2010 and anticipate rise in EUR/UAH rate. This was the results of USD and EUR exchange rate analysis carried out by Credit-Rating’s Department for Methodology Development and Rating Researches.

Credit-Rating maintains the project aimed at tracking forecasts of foreign currency exchange rates in Ukraine made by leading experts of the currency market. In June 2010, 15 companies submitted their forecasts for USD and EUR exchange rates through end-2010 within contest ‘Best Forecast of Foreign Currency Exchange Rate 2010’.

The experts anticipate slight strengthening of USD by end-2010 and rising EUR rate by end of the year. The median USD/UAH rate is at UAH7.9 with this rate rising in November to UAH7.94 per USD. The most pessimistic forecast as of Dec. 31, 2010 is UAH8.15, with the most optimistic being at UAH7.83. The forecasts for EUR/UAH exchange rate fluctuate wider, with the spread reaching ±10% of the median rate. Thereat the majority of analysts anticipate strengthening UAH in short term (the median of forecasts declines to UAH9.48 per EUR as of Sep. 30, 2010 from UAH9.63 per EUR as of Jul. 31, 2010) and rising EUR against UAH in 4Q2010 (the median of forecasts reached UAH10.05 per EUR). The most optimistic UAH/EUR exchange rate is 9.15, with the most pessimistic being at 10.94.

Full information regarding forecasts through end-2010

The contest ‘Best Forecast of Foreign Currency Exchange Rate 2010’ is conducted among organizations that make forecasts of foreign currency exchange rates in their business activities. The contest features large banks, investment companies, analytical centers and consulting companies, and asset management companies.

The forecasts and interim results will be published upon their confirmation in Credit-Rating’s website, in Credit-Rating Monitor information bulletin, and covered in Rating Panorama TV project. According to the contest results the winners, whose forecasts will appear to be the most accurate will be awarded diplomas in early 2011.

Information on all credit ratings assigned in accordance with the National Rating Scale may be found in REUTERS and BLOOMBERG information systems.

For more information, please contact:
Information and analytic department
Sergey Rozumyak +38044490 25 50
SRozumyak@credit-rating.com.ua 
Denis Rudenko
DRudenko@credit-rating.ua

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